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Mega-cap tech reset is a buy-the-dip opportunity
Recent 6% pullback in NVDA, AVGO and AMD has compressed multiples to 22x forward earnings — a 14% discount to their 5-year average. AI capex cycle remains intact with hyperscaler commitments through 2026.
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US session close
Risk-on session as softer-than-expected CPI bolstered rate cut hopes. Mega-cap tech led gains with NVDA +2.4% and MSFT +1.8%. Small-caps outperformed with IWM +1.6%. Bond yields fell 8bps across the curve.
- JPM, Citi earnings pre-market
- Fed Williams speech 2pm ET
- 5Y Treasury auction 1pm ET
Buy NVDA on any pullback below $124 into Q3 capex guidance.
Marcus Chen, Head of Equities — conviction 82%, time horizon 6 weeks.
Hyperscaler capex guidance cut, geopolitical escalation affecting TSMC supply.
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LLYWhat management actually said
Beyond beat/miss — the guidance, the quote, and our analyst takeaway from this week's most consequential earnings.
JPMJPMorgan ChaseConsumer spending remains resilient but we're seeing some moderation in lower-income segments.
Trading revenue exceeded expectations driven by fixed income strength.
BLKBlackRockInflows of $82B demonstrate continued momentum in our platform strategy.
WFCWells FargoNet interest income guidance range maintained as deposit costs stabilize.
FASTFastenalOnshoring trends continue to support industrial demand despite macro softness.
DALDelta Air LinesIndustry capacity growth outpacing demand in premium transatlantic.
PEPPepsiCoPricing power remains intact despite input cost normalization.
ACNAccentureGen AI bookings crossed $1B quarterly run rate — demand is real and accelerating.
Today's economic releases, scored
Actual vs. forecast vs. previous, surprise factor, and impact rating — sourced from 40+ statistical agencies worldwide.
Which sectors are leading, which are lagging
S&P 500 sector returns across four timeframes with weightings. Watch for rotation signals as rate cut expectations shift.
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AI Infrastructure: $1.4T Capex Cycle and the Winners
Identifies 18 companies capturing 78% of incremental AI capex; ranks NVDA, AVGO, VRT as top-tier picks with multi-year visibility.
The Bond Vigilante Playbook: Positioning for 5% 10Y
Macro model points to 10Y fair value of 5.0-5.25%; details 7 duration-hedged strategies across TIPS, floaters, and credit.
Crypto ETF 2.0: Institutional Adoption Phase
ETF flows to reach $80B annualized by Q4; BTC supply ownership projection model shows 8% ETF ownership by year-end.
GLP-1: A $200B Market by 2030 — Mapping the Value Chain
Maps 42 companies across GLP-1 value chain; LLY and NVO dominate manufacturing while devices and CDMOs offer leverage.
Reshoring Renaissance: Industrial Automation Supercycle
US manufacturing construction spend up 70% YoY; identifies 12 automation plays leveraged to reshoring capex cycle.
Emerging Markets Ex-China: The Real Growth Story
EM ex-China earnings growth 14% vs DM 8%; India, Mexico, Indonesia identified as top markets on structural reforms.
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Technology & Semiconductors
Mega-cap tech reset is a buy-the-dip opportunity
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